I have many family, friends, and clients who have served our country; and likely many blog readers that I don’t know personally who have served as well. Many we know gave the ultimate sacrifice for our freedom, their lives.
THANK YOU ALL.
Have a safe and happy Memorial Day. As we enjoy a long weekend and kick off summer, let’s all do our best to honor those who have served.
Forever grateful,
Jason Wenk
Earlier today the stock market hit new intra-day highs for the year…then Ben Bernake, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, dropped a bomb on the markets.
The market didn’t like the news, so a 2% selloff occurred in less than 4 hours. Ouch!!
Best,
Jason Wenk
Each month I calculate the strength of the US economy using a math based model I call RPA (Recession Probability Analytics). When the number rises above 50 it means the US economy is in the bottom 50% of all economic conditions relative to it history.
While far from perfect, the model has had an uncanny ability to correlate (negatively) with stock market returns. In other words, since I started publishing RPA the S&P 500 is just barely up (but very volatile), but when RPA has signaled less than 50 (the “green light” so to speak), the S&P 500 has risen over 50% (and not too volatile at all). I began publishing the model in November of 2007.
Wow, what a year it’s been for the stock market! Double digit gains in less than 4 months, a pace for 50%+ yearly gains, and very little downward volatility.
I suspect, quite a lot. How soon? Anyone’s guess is as good as mine.
Barron’s liked the rally late in 2012…
The simple fact is the market has been booming, all the main stream media seems to think it will last forever, and there’s no reason to have concern. Contrarian thinking would tell us these are signs a top is near, but there’s no guarantee of that at all. In fact, there were similar warning signs in the late 1990′s and the rally then lasted years.
Below are the most up to date allocations for the Tactical Asset Allocation model I’ve written about on the blog. For those needing a refresher on what TAA is and why I think it’s important as part of an investment plan just click here to revisit the first post.
| Stocks (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF as proxy) | Bonds (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF as proxy) | Real Estate (Vanguard REIT ETF as proxy) | Gold (SPDR Gold ETF as proxy) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2011 | 0% | 55% | 7% | 38% |
| October 2011 | 0% | 62% | 0% | 38% |
| November 2011 | 0% | 60% | 0% | 40% |
| December 2011 | 0% | 58% | 0% | 42% |
| January 2012 | 0% | 71% | 0% | 29% |
| February 2012 | 4% | 57% | 9% | 30% |
| March 2012 | 17% | 58% | 12% | 13% |
| April 2012 | 17% | 55% | 18% | 10% |
| May 2012 | 16% | 61% | 23% | 0% |
| June 2012 | 5% | 69% | 26% | 0% |
| July 2012 | 13% | 61% | 26% | 0% |
| August 2012 | 13% | 62% | 25% | 0% |
I recently had a blog reader pose a question I hadn’t gotten in awhile, and thought others might have the same one. Basically, they wondered if now was a good time to buy real estate, or if a stock market correction would create a better buying opportunity. Here’s the full question:
Do you have any charts that illustrate a correlation between the stock market trends and home price trends, as well as home supply trends? I know real estate is a local matter but I am practicing patience while waiting for the stock market to drop to buy a house, assuming home prices will drop too in response. Am I right to assume there is a correlation?
Each month I calculate the strength of the US economy using a math based model I call RPA (Recession Probability Analytics). When the number rises above 50 it means the US economy is in the bottom 50% of all economic conditions relative to it history.
While far from perfect, the model has had an uncanny ability to correlate (negatively) with stock market returns. In other words, since I started publishing RPA the S&P 500 is just about flat (but very volatile), but when RPA has signaled less than 50 (the “green light” so to speak), the S&P 500 has risen over 47% (and not too volatile at all). I began publishing the model in November of 2007.
Since I have a lot of clients and readers who are age 50 and above, I thought this article was very appropriate to share:
Basically, because interest rates are so low these days, the fraudsters and scammers are taking advantage of people seeking higher fixed returns on their investments. As the saying goes, “If it sounds too good to be true…it probably is.”
Stay smart and be safe!
Cheers,
Jason Wenk
If you’ve turned on financial television or opened the financial section of your local paper, you probably know the stock market has dropped a few percent the last few days. You also probably know that gold has plummeted (about 12% since last week).
Why did these drops happen? What happens next? That’s what I’m covering in today’s video market update.
Despite the recent woes of stock and commodities investments, if you’ve followed my posts on the blog, you already knew this was likely to happen. Further, if you’re following a well diversified, conservative investment plan – these recent drops haven’t impacted your portfolio at all 
.
If you haven’t followed every single post on my blog the past quarter, below you’ll find my firm’s quarterly market commentary (which I write). This can serve as a nice and quick synopsis of how our economic and investing models view the world at the moment, as well as how we’re preparing for the coming few months. It’s just a few pages, has lots of pretty graphics , and you’re welcome to share it with anyone you think might benefit.
Retirement Wealth Advisors Market Commentary – Q1 2013
Cheers,
Jason Wenk
Welcome to the blog of Jason Wenk; author, quantitative investment systems developer, and investment advisor.
On this site I mix business, my latest research, and a little bit of my family life. The goal is to make an impact with knowledge, but also let the world know there's more to me than just my work.
