Archives For Investing Seasonality

US economy improving

Bernanke’s Impact – Market Update – May 31, 2013

May 31, 2013 — Leave a comment

As mentioned in a previous post, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made some comments last week that the financial markets didn’t take too kindly. Now that we’ve had some time to let the dust settle, we can clearly see the winners and losers based on his comments.

In today’s video I take a look at the stock market, real estate market, bond market, and commodities market. You’ll see the latter 3 all took the news rather badly. I’ll also explore what this means long term, as well as answer the question: “How much longer can the stock market keep going up?”

The answer might surprise you.

If you have questions/comments, feel free to use the comment feature a couple inches below this post.

This is a preview of Bernanke’s Impact – Market Update – May 31, 2013. Read the full post (165 words, estimated 40 secs reading time)
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don't panic

Is Today the Start of a Big Stock Market Correction?

May 22, 2013 — Leave a comment

Earlier today the stock market hit new intra-day highs for the year…then Ben Bernake, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, dropped a bomb on the markets.

The market didn’t like the news, so a 2% selloff occurred in less than 4 hours. Ouch!!

So what did Bernake say that drove the markets bonkers? Check out today’s market update video to find out:

Best,

Jason Wenk

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In Investing Seasonality, Investor Alert, Investor Education, Market Update , , , ,
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Santa Claus Stock Market Rally

Is a Santa Claus Rally Coming for the Stock Market?

December 5, 2012 — Leave a comment

According to Biryini Associates the S&P 500 has risen 76% of the time from the day after Thanksgiving through year end.  This phenomenon is known as a “Santa Claus Rally” as stock markets typically only go up about 55% of all calendar months.  There is actually quite a bit of truth (at least on the surface) to Santa’s Rally as looking at the last 40 years December is the best performing month for stocks with an average return of 1.71%.

This begs the question, “Will we get a Santa Claus Rally in 2012?”

“There are three types of lies: Lies, damn lies, and statistics” – Benjamin Disraeli

While December as a whole has been a good month, it’s not without plenty of pretty bad times too.  Consider some of these years:

This is a preview of Is a Santa Claus Rally Coming for the Stock Market?. Read the full post (796 words, 1 image, estimated 3:11 mins reading time)
In Investing Seasonality, Investor Alert, Investor Education, Market Update
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Screen shot 2011-08-26 at 2.15.48 PM

Recession Probability Update – August 2012

July 23, 2012 — Leave a comment

Each month I calculate the strength of the US economy using a math based model I call RPA (Recession Probability Analytics). When the number rises above 50 it means the US economy is in the bottom 50% of all economic conditions relative to it history.

While far from perfect, the model has had an uncanny ability to correlate (negatively) with stock market returns. In other words, when the model moves above 50 the S&P 500 has fallen over 25% and when it is below 50 the S&P 500 has risen nearly 15%.  I began publishing the model in November of 2007.

Here’s the full history of RPA from inception:

Month/YearRPAS&P 500S&P ReturnGrowth of $100,000 if exiting S&P 500 for month after RPA moves above 50
This is a preview of Recession Probability Update – August 2012. Read the full post (361 words, estimated 1:27 mins reading time)
In Investing Seasonality, Investor Alert, Investor Education, Recession Probability, RPA
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Tactical Asset Allocation Monthly Feature – July 2012

July 5, 2012 — Leave a comment

Below are the most up to date allocations for the Tactical Asset Allocation model I’ve written about on the blog.  For those needing a refresher on what TAA is and why I think it’s important as part of an investment plan just click here to revisit the first post.

Stocks (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF as proxy)Bonds (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF as proxy)Real Estate (Vanguard REIT ETF as proxy)Gold (SPDR Gold ETF as proxy)
September 20110%55%7%38%
October 20110%62%0%38%
November 20110%60%0%40%
December 20110%58%0%42%
January 20120%71%0%29%
February 20124%57%9%30%
March 201217%58%12%13%
April 201217%55%18%10%
May 201216%61%23%0%
June 20125%69%26%0%
July 201213%61%26%0%
This is a preview of Tactical Asset Allocation Monthly Feature – July 2012. Read the full post (543 words, estimated 2:10 mins reading time)
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Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) Monthly Feature – June 2012

June 7, 2012 — Leave a comment

Below are the most up to date allocations for the Tactical Asset Allocation model I’ve written about on the blog.  For those needing a refresher on what TAA is and why I think it’s important as part of an investment plan just click here to revisit the first post.

Stocks (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF as proxy)Bonds (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF as proxy)Real Estate (Vanguard REIT ETF as proxy)Gold (SPDR Gold ETF as proxy)
September 20110%55%7%38%
October 20110%62%0%38%
November 20110%60%0%40%
December 20110%58%0%42%
January 20120%71%0%29%
February 20124%57%9%30%
March 201217%58%12%13%
April 201217%55%18%10%
May 201216%61%23%0%
June 20125%69%26%0%
July 201213%61%26%0%
This is a preview of Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) Monthly Feature – June 2012. Read the full post (571 words, estimated 2:17 mins reading time)
In Investing Seasonality, Investor Education, Tactical Asset Allocation ,
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Recession Probability Update – June 2012

May 20, 2012 — Leave a comment

Each month I calculate the strength of the US economy using a math based model I call RPA (Recession Probability Analytics). When the number rises above 50 it means the US economy is in the bottom 50% of all economic conditions relative to it history.

While far from perfect, the model has had an uncanny ability to correlate (negatively) with stock market returns. In other words, when the model moves above 50 the S&P 500 has fallen over 25% and when it is below 50 the S&P 500 has risen nearly 15%.  I began publishing the model in November of 2007.

Here’s the full history of RPA from inception:

Month/YearRPAS&P 500S&P ReturnGrowth of $100,000 if exiting S&P 500 for month after RPA moves above 50
This is a preview of Recession Probability Update – June 2012. Read the full post (487 words, estimated 1:57 mins reading time)
In Investing Seasonality, Investor Education, Recession Probability, RPA , ,
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Screen shot 2011-12-01 at 6.14.16 PM

So What will the Market do in December?

December 2, 2011 — Leave a comment

November finished with a bang and December is now upon us.  One question I’ve been getting is, “So what will the market do in December?”

One of the reasons for this question is because there’s a lot of information that shows December is traditionally a very good month, and another is because we’ve just come off the best 3 consecutive days since March of 2009.  If an investor is invested conservatively some are afraid they’ll miss out on great returns this month due to those two factors.

That said, I thought I’d break down the facts about December to shine a little light on what may happen.

First, here’s the stats on all Decembers using the S&P 500 as the stock markets barometer:

This is a preview of So What will the Market do in December?. Read the full post (479 words, 2 images, estimated 1:55 mins reading time)
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