Archives For RPA

economic cruise control

Recession Probability (RPA) Update – June 2013

May 20, 2013 — Leave a comment

Each month I calculate the strength of the US economy using a math based model I call RPA (Recession Probability Analytics). When the number rises above 50 it means the US economy is in the bottom 50% of all economic conditions relative to it history.

While far from perfect, the model has had an uncanny ability to correlate (negatively) with stock market returns. In other words, since I started publishing RPA the S&P 500 is just barely up (but very volatile), but when RPA has signaled less than 50 (the “green light” so to speak), the S&P 500 has risen over 50% (and not too volatile at all).  I began publishing the model in November of 2007.

This is a preview of Recession Probability (RPA) Update – June 2013. Read the full post (516 words, estimated 2:04 mins reading time)
In Investor Education, Recession Probability, RPA ,
permalink
Screen Shot 2013-04-21 at 10.38.48 AM

Recession Probability Update (RPA) – May 2013

April 21, 2013 — Leave a comment

Each month I calculate the strength of the US economy using a math based model I call RPA (Recession Probability Analytics). When the number rises above 50 it means the US economy is in the bottom 50% of all economic conditions relative to it history.

While far from perfect, the model has had an uncanny ability to correlate (negatively) with stock market returns. In other words, since I started publishing RPA the S&P 500 is just about flat (but very volatile), but when RPA has signaled less than 50 (the “green light” so to speak), the S&P 500 has risen over 47% (and not too volatile at all).  I began publishing the model in November of 2007.

This is a preview of Recession Probability Update (RPA) – May 2013. Read the full post (479 words, estimated 1:55 mins reading time)
In Investor Education, Recession Probability, RPA
permalink
Spring

Recession Probability Update (RPA) – April 2013

March 29, 2013 — Leave a comment

Each month I calculate the strength of the US economy using a math based model I call RPA (Recession Probability Analytics). When the number rises above 50 it means the US economy is in the bottom 50% of all economic conditions relative to it history.

While far from perfect, the model has had an uncanny ability to correlate (negatively) with stock market returns. In other words, since I started publishing RPA the S&P 500 has fallen over 5%, but when RPA has signaled less than 50 (the “green light” so to speak), the S&P 500 has risen over 40%.  I began publishing the model in November of 2007.

Here’s the full history of RPA from inception:

This is a preview of Recession Probability Update (RPA) – April 2013. Read the full post (623 words, estimated 2:30 mins reading time)
In Investor Education, Recession Probability, RPA , ,
permalink
Screen shot 2011-08-31 at 6.01.48 PM

Recession Probability (RPA) Update – March 2013

March 5, 2013 — Leave a comment

Nothing like reporting old news!!!  For some reason this post didn’t get published last month as it was supposed to.  Technology/User error I guess ;) .  Either way, here was last months RPA update (along with some old news about the sequester).

—–

Each month I calculate the strength of the US economy using a math based model I call RPA (Recession Probability Analytics). When the number rises above 50 it means the US economy is in the bottom 50% of all economic conditions relative to it history.

This is a preview of Recession Probability (RPA) Update – March 2013. Read the full post (819 words, estimated 3:17 mins reading time)
In Fiscal Cliff, Recession Probability, RPA ,
permalink
US Economy heading for Recession

Recession Probability (RPA) Update – February 2013

January 24, 2013 — Leave a comment

Each month I calculate the strength of the US economy using a math based model I call RPA (Recession Probability Analytics). When the number rises above 50 it means the US economy is in the bottom 50% of all economic conditions relative to it history.

While far from perfect, the model has had an uncanny ability to correlate (negatively) with stock market returns. In other words, when the model moves above 50 the S&P 500 has fallen over 25% and when it is below 50 the S&P 500 has risen over 30%.  I began publishing the model in November of 2007.

Here’s the full history of RPA from inception:

Month/YearRPAS&P 500S&P ReturnGrowth of $100,000 if exiting S&P 500 for month after RPA moves above 50
This is a preview of Recession Probability (RPA) Update – February 2013. Read the full post (484 words, estimated 1:56 mins reading time)
In Recession Probability, RPA
permalink
Fiscal Cliff

Recession Probability (RPA) Update – January 2013

December 26, 2012 — Leave a comment

Each month I calculate the strength of the US economy using a math based model I call RPA (Recession Probability Analytics). When the number rises above 50 it means the US economy is in the bottom 50% of all economic conditions relative to it history.

While far from perfect, the model has had an uncanny ability to correlate (negatively) with stock market returns. In other words, when the model moves above 50 the S&P 500 has fallen over 25% and when it is below 50 the S&P 500 has risen over 30%.  I began publishing the model in November of 2007.

Here’s the full history of RPA from inception:

Month/YearRPAS&P 500S&P ReturnGrowth of $100,000 if exiting S&P 500 for month after RPA moves above 50
This is a preview of Recession Probability (RPA) Update – January 2013. Read the full post (603 words, estimated 2:25 mins reading time)
In Investor Alert, Investor Education, Recession Probability, RPA ,
permalink
October Tricks

Recession Probability – November 2012

October 26, 2012 — Leave a comment

Each month I calculate the strength of the US economy using a math based model I call RPA (Recession Probability Analytics). When the number rises above 50 it means the US economy is in the bottom 50% of all economic conditions relative to it history.

While far from perfect, the model has had an uncanny ability to correlate (negatively) with stock market returns. In other words, when the model moves above 50 the S&P 500 has fallen over 25% and when it is below 50 the S&P 500 has risen nearly 27%.  I began publishing the model in November of 2007.

Here’s the full history of RPA from inception:

Month/YearRPAS&P 500S&P ReturnGrowth of $100,000 if exiting S&P 500 for month after RPA moves above 50
This is a preview of Recession Probability – November 2012. Read the full post (389 words, estimated 1:33 mins reading time)
In Investor Alert, Recession Probability, RPA
permalink
US Economy heading for Recession

Recession Probability Update – October 2012

September 26, 2012 — Leave a comment

Each month I calculate the strength of the US economy using a math based model I call RPA (Recession Probability Analytics). When the number rises above 50 it means the US economy is in the bottom 50% of all economic conditions relative to it history.

While far from perfect, the model has had an uncanny ability to correlate (negatively) with stock market returns. In other words, when the model moves above 50 the S&P 500 has fallen over 25% and when it is below 50 the S&P 500 has risen nearly 15%.  I began publishing the model in November of 2007.

Here’s the full history of RPA from inception:

Month/YearRPAS&P 500S&P ReturnGrowth of $100,000 if exiting S&P 500 for month after RPA moves above 50
This is a preview of Recession Probability Update – October 2012. Read the full post (446 words, estimated 1:47 mins reading time)
In Recession Probability, RPA , ,
permalink

Recession Probability Update – September 2012

August 29, 2012 — Leave a comment

Each month I calculate the strength of the US economy using a math based model I call RPA (Recession Probability Analytics). When the number rises above 50 it means the US economy is in the bottom 50% of all economic conditions relative to it history.

While far from perfect, the model has had an uncanny ability to correlate (negatively) with stock market returns. In other words, when the model moves above 50 the S&P 500 has fallen over 25% and when it is below 50 the S&P 500 has risen nearly 15%.  I began publishing the model in November of 2007.

Here’s the full history of RPA from inception:

Month/YearRPAS&P 500S&P ReturnGrowth of $100,000 if exiting S&P 500 for month after RPA moves above 50
This is a preview of Recession Probability Update – September 2012. Read the full post (326 words, estimated 1:18 mins reading time)
In Investor Education, Recession Probability, RPA
permalink
Screen shot 2011-08-26 at 2.15.48 PM

Recession Probability Update – August 2012

July 23, 2012 — Leave a comment

Each month I calculate the strength of the US economy using a math based model I call RPA (Recession Probability Analytics). When the number rises above 50 it means the US economy is in the bottom 50% of all economic conditions relative to it history.

While far from perfect, the model has had an uncanny ability to correlate (negatively) with stock market returns. In other words, when the model moves above 50 the S&P 500 has fallen over 25% and when it is below 50 the S&P 500 has risen nearly 15%.  I began publishing the model in November of 2007.

Here’s the full history of RPA from inception:

Month/YearRPAS&P 500S&P ReturnGrowth of $100,000 if exiting S&P 500 for month after RPA moves above 50
This is a preview of Recession Probability Update – August 2012. Read the full post (361 words, estimated 1:27 mins reading time)
In Investing Seasonality, Investor Alert, Investor Education, Recession Probability, RPA
permalink